‘Volatility is the new normal’: How middle-market firms can stay ahead in 2026

Michael Davis ; 2025-12-07 13:47:10

MMA’s Matt Stadler explains how brokers can help clients turn instability into a strategic advantage

Insurance News

By Gia Snape

Dec 02, 2025Share

US middle-market businesses are heading into 2026 with a familiar mix of uncertainty and operational pressure.

Inflation and supply chain instability remain stubborn, talent shortages continue to grow, and risk exposures are rising across virtually every major line of business. At the same time, the insurance market is moving in two directions: property rates are softening, while casualty continues to harden.

One brokerage leader believes the volatility that marked 2025 will continue – and, in some areas, intensify – for the sector, meaning insurance brokers are being called on to provide more strategic, data-driven guidance than ever.

According to Matt Stadler (pictured), president of Marsh McLennan Agency (MMA), the current environment amounts to “a perfect storm” for middle-market clients.

“Capital is tighter, risks are more complex, and the insurance market is less forgiving,” Stadler toldInsurance Business. “The question becomes: Do they capture the savings after years of increases, or reinvest those dollars into risk mitigation and long-term strategy?”

“Volatility is the new normal” for middle-market businesses

If 2025 was defined by uncertainty, 2026 is shaping up similarly: inflation is persisting, geopolitical tension is rising, and the labor market is still strained.

Stadler said middle-market firms were disproportionately impacted this year because many lack the internal risk management resources that larger enterprises have. “They’ve faced higher costs of goods, weakening labor dynamics, and a spike in risk exposure,” he explained. “And unlike enterprise organizations, they may not have full-time teams addressing these pressures every day.”

Additional shocks, including the recent government shutdown, amplified the strain. For some businesses, particularly those relying on government loans or services, the disruption created significant financial stress.

But the middle-market’s agility remains its strength.

“In times of uncertainty, the best leaders rise,” Stadler noted. “These businesses innovate, diversify, and make decisions quickly. That resiliency is why they continue to outperform expectations.”

Despite their durability and adaptability, many middle-market companies enter 2026 exposed in several critical areas:

Underutilized alternative risk strategies- Captives, parametrics, and other alternative solutions remain underexplored by many clients. “If you haven’t been proactive in evaluating these options, you’re going to face significant headwinds,” Stadler warned.
Cyber risk sophistication- Many companies purchased cyber insurance as a one-size-fits-all solution rather than tailoring it to their actual risk profile. That leaves them vulnerable as cyber claims grow more advanced.
Casualty severity trends- The surge in mid-range claims demands more disciplined risk prevention and claims management, Stadler said.

Diverging markets call for holistic risk strategy

While property pricing is moderating, casualty is still moving sharply upward, propelled by social inflation, nuclear verdicts, and a rise in medium-severity claims in the $1 million to $20 million range, according to Stadler. He cautioned brokers and middle-market leaders against viewing these trends in isolation.

“When you look at middle-market clients, you are not just looking at P&C, you’re also looking at employee health & benefits (EH&B),” he said. “EH&B costs are also hardening, particularly as the talent market becomes more competitive. CFOs need to evaluate their total cost of risk, not just one silo.”

This divergence makes holistic risk planning essential. For brokers supporting middle-market accounts, Stadler said the priority should be building year-round strategies, not 90-day renewal reactions.

“Underwriters reward companies that understand their data and treat risk as a strategic pillar,” he said. “Clients who articulate what they’re doing to mitigate risk, not just what they’re insuring, are outperforming the market by a mile.”

As middle-market clients grapple with competing pressures, brokers have an opportunity to serve as strategic navigators. According to Stadler, brokers should focus on:

Delivering deeper analytics. Detailed exposure analysis, benchmarking, and predictive modeling help clients tell a stronger story to underwriters.
Developing year-round risk strategies. Continuous improvement, e.g., through enhanced safety programs, supply chain assessments, and talent risk strategies, can significantly improve market performance.
Helping clients articulate their data. Underwriters are “less forgiving,” at this moment, Stadler emphasized. Companies that demonstrate control, planning, and data fluency will command better pricing and terms.
Reviewing total cost of risk across all lines. With property softening and casualty hardening, integrated planning is essential to avoid short-sighted decisions.