This Quantum Computing Stock Could Be the Next Nvidia – 1,000% Returns Ahead
Emily Smith ; 2025-10-23 22:10:43
Key Points
- This steadier company might end up winning the quantum computing race.
- It has profits, is ahead technologically, and is more proven.
- The roadmap is straightforward, and the company has consistently met its targets.
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It’s no secret that Wall Street is already betting on the “next big thing” and is doing so generously. Some of the biggest gainers over the past year have been quantum computing startups.
IONQ (NYSE:IONQ)is up 668%,D-Wave Quantum (NYSE:QBTS)is up 2,622%, andRigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI)is up a staggering 3,848%. Even more money is expected to flow in as quantum computing ETFs are gaining popularity.
However, if you also want exposure and you’re willing to wait it out, it may be more sensible to be more boring. The issue with most quantum computing stocks is that the underlying business is burning cash at record speed. The market is paying for potential breakthroughs that may allow them to make money in a decade or two, and these startups are funding their progress through at-the-market offerings.
But what if I told you the best quantum computing stock comes with a 2.38% dividend yield, is solidly profitable, and is ahead in quantum computing tech? It might end up becoming the nextNvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA).
Why IBM (IBM) can win the quantum computing race
Loading stock data...This company has been investing in making quantum computing commercially viable for decades.IBM (NYSE:IBM)first conceptualized quantum computing and has been consistently investing in it since the 1980s. This has allowed the company to have the best quantum computing technology. In 2019, it launched IBM Quantum System One, the first commercial quantum computer.
Startups are focused on niche hardware and have limited scalability with narrow use cases. They could be decades away from fault-tolerant systems.
On the other hand, IBM’s business model is focused on enterprises with hybrid quantum-classical systems. Plus, it is aiming to build a fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029 after the breakthroughs this June. IBM has a history of hitting these quantum computing milestones.
Will IBM be the next Nvidia?
“The next Nvidia” is what Wall Street has been looking for in the past two years. And if quantum computing does pay off, IBM looks like the most likely candidate. It has a cloud ecosystem already open to Fortune 500 clients, and the profits to keep funding research through downturns.
IBM posted $2.2 billion in Q2 2025 net income. That amount alone is more than what the top 3 public quantum computing startups have raised through dilutioncombinedso far in 2025.
If IBM can offer a superior product that can outperform traditional computing, the market is willing to pay a heavy markup. Whether or not this will happen is very speculative, but if you think quantum computing breakthroughs will translate into commercial viability in the next decade or two, IBM will likely be the next Nvidia.
Why I’d buy IBM stock over the startups
It is healthy to have a small amount invested in quantum computing stocks like IONQ and RGTI. That said, IBM deserves a heavier weight if you are looking to bet a serious amount in this field. This is not only because it is likelier to win in the end, but also because IBM does not need quantum computing to survive.
If AI turns out to be a bubble or quantum computing breakthroughs don’t happen as expected, pure-play quantum computing stocks will fail miserably as a result. In contrast, IBM software revenue grew 10% year-over-year in Q2, and consulting revenue grew 3%. It has sticky consulting clients that allow it to remain profitable. IBM has 30 consecutive years of dividend increases on record. If you reinvest the dividends, you’ll likely stay in the green regardless of how the quantum computing industry turns out.
If the bulls are right, IBM’s $262 billion market capitalization leaves massive room for upside potential. Nvidia had a market cap below $280 billion in 2022 when it bottomed out. It has seen a 1,530% increase since then.
If IBM can sell quantum tech to AI companies and hyperscalers like Nvidia is doing today, it is certainly plausible that IBM’s market cap could be in the trillions around a decade from now. A 1,000% gain from here would leave IBM with a $2.9 trillion market cap, only the fifth biggest company.
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