Netflix Stock Set For a Popcorn Moment on Path to $1,600
Robert Miller ; 2025-10-29 11:32:33
Key Points
- Netflix’s live sports success could translate to even more subscriber growth for the year ahead.
- Shares are pricey, but they deserve a premium, given the wide moat and full content pipeline that can power more performance in 2026.
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Things have been looking down for shares of video-streaming kingNetflix(NASDAQ:NFLX) in recent months. The stock has now shed more than 13% since its summer peak and could be at risk of entering bear market territory (20% fall) as some of the hottest catalysts are now in the rearview mirror. Indeed, the Canelo vs. Crawford boxing match was a knockout success, averaging more than 41 million views around the world.
Netflix’s live sports streaming has been a success. Could it deliver a knockout blow to the competition?
Perhaps most remarkably, the stream quality held up well, unlike the issues many faced during the Tyson vs. Paul fight in the final quarter of last year. In any case, I think it’s safe to say that Netflix has mastered live streaming to the masses. As the streaming giant looks to set its sights on more live spectacles, it’s tough to turn away from the streamer in its moment of pressure.
Indeed, the possibilities are endless, especially if Netflix is ready to change the fight game as we know it. Indeed, it’s tough to get any bigger than Canelo vs. Crawford. But I do think live boxing represents a massive opportunity to keep new subscribers coming in. After all, a Netflix subscription is an absolute bargain when compared to what a pay-per-view (PPV) fight would have cost. In many ways, live sports stands to make a sticky subscription even stickier.
Time will tell if Netflix can deliver a knockout to its streaming rivals. In terms of value for money, though, I think it’s hard to argue that Netflix remains the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world. And that’s not about to change anytime soon, especially as the firm looks to up the ante moving forward.
The content pipeline remains stacked. But challenges remain.
Netflix has a stacked pipeline that could keep users binging over the next year or so. Another season of Beef, Stranger Things, and more live sports could keep audiences entertained. Of course, the big question is whether there’s going to be a must-see boxing match that’s capable of drawing in crowds to the magnitude of a Canelo vs. Crawford.
Time will tell. Either way, there are ample title matches that could make for a worthy matchup in the new year, from Gervonta Davis to Jake Paul’s next big match. Indeed, it’s a great time to be a boxing fan if Netflix is, in fact, poised to double down on boxing.
In the meantime, investors may be a bit hesitant to buy shares on the latest correction, with Elon Musk reportedly encouraging users to cancel Netflix. I have no idea who will actually follow through. Either way, if shares pull back further, I wouldn’t hesitate to step in as a buyer on weakness. If there’s one thing that works against Netflix stock at this juncture, it’s the valuation, which is getting tough to get behind.
Shares are pricey, but a run to $1,600 might be possible
Most analysts are mildly bullish on the name, but not Pivotal Research’s Jeff Wlodarczak, who has a $1,600 price target on the name, around 38% higher than current levels. Strong subscriber growth and momentum in the ad-supported tier are catalysts behind the Street-high target. The wide moat and deep content library are other noteworthy aspects as well, according to Mr. Wlodarczak.
At 49.6 times trailing price-to-earnings (P/E), shares are undeniably rich. However, given the sticky nature of the subscription and its ability to follow up on 2025’s success with more strength, the premier multiple might be worth it. Of course, there’s also a chance Netflix becomes a victim of its own prior success. Either way, it might be time to get out the popcorn as the streaming king looks to keep its competitors on the ropes.
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