Social Security’s Biggest Announcement of the Year is Coming This Month
David Davis ; 2025-10-25 10:57:11
Key Points
- Many retirees are eager to find out what 2026’sSocial Security COLA will be.
- TheSocial Security Administration typically makes that announcement in October.
- This year’s news may be delayed due to the government shutdown.
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There are millions of older Americans who collect benefits from Social Security each month. And while some of those people have outside income they can rely on, like IRAs or 401(k) plans, for many seniors, Social Security is their only retirement income stream.
For people in the latter boat, Social Security’s annual cost-of-living adjustments, or COLAs, are extremely important. Without those annual raises, seniors would be almost guaranteed to fall behind on their expenses due to inflation.
Over time, living costs tend to rise gradually. But if Social Security benefits don’t get boosted, the people who receive them have no way to keep up with those increases in the absence of other income.
At this point, many seniors are itching to know what their 2026 COLA will look like. And the Social Security Administration (SSA) is planning to share news of a 2026 COLA on Oct. 15.
That said, the SSA may be forced to delay that crucial announcement. And that could leave seniors waiting longer for answers.
Why this year’s COLA announcement could be delayed
Social Security COLAs are based on inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release September’s Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) on Oct. 15. That data is needed for the SSA to finalize its COLA.
But as you may have heard, there’s a pesky little government shutdown happening right now. And because of that, the BLS is planning to pause operations.
Part of that means delayed economic data like the CPI-W. If that data doesn’t come out on time, the SSA will not be able to make its COLA announcement on Oct. 15 as planned.
What the numbers say so far
Seniors shouldn’t necessarily be totally in the dark with regard to their upcoming COLA. Based on inflation data so far, the nonpartisan Senior Citizens League is expecting a 2.7% Social Security COLA for 2026. In the past, the group’s projections have been fairly accurate.
However, it’s possible that inflation crept upward in September. If so, it would potentially mean an even larger Social Security COLA for 2026. But until the government becomes fully functional again, there’s no way to know.
The good news is that the government shutdown should not have an impact on Social Security payments. Those should continue going out as scheduled.
There’s also a strong chance that the shutdown will end in enough time for the BLS to release its September inflation data and for the SSA to be able to make its COLA announcement on Oct. 15 as scheduled. But it’s important to brace for the fact that news of a COLA may not arrive on schedule.
It’s also important to remember that the government shutdown is likely to end sooner rather than later. It’s just too detrimental to have a shutdown drag on for months or even weeks on end.
Seniors who really want to know what their 2026 COLA will amount to may very well find out in October. It just may not happen on the 15th.